Risk Of RBNZ July Cut Increase; Sept Likely -RBC

Forex News: Risks of NZ July 24 rate cut have increased following weak 2Q NZIER business confidence survey, and market will increase odds of this if 2Q inflation comes in below 1.4% on-quarter and May retail sales is "a shocker" next week, says RBC Capital Markets strategist Sue Trinh; adds however that RBC remains comfortable with call for cumulative easing cycle of 200 bps starting with 50bp cut in September. "This survey does reinforce the challenging environment for the RBNZ as they weigh up the risk of second round effects due to a short term spike in inflation, but the medium term forces are looking increasingly favorable."