Risk Of July NZ Rate Cut Rises Considerably - ASB

Forex News: Very weak GDP signals in today's 2Q NZ business confidence considerably raises risk of rate cut at July 24 RBNZ meeting, says ASB Bank chief economist Nick Tuffley; "We judge that the risk of a July OCR cut has grown considerably and that it will be a close call for the RBNZ." Maintains view RBNZ will wait until September but thinks July cut will come into play if next week's 2Q CPI shows domestic inflation "well-behaved" relative to RBNZ expectations, plus activity data consistent with near term weakness. "All up the (business confidence) survey reinforces the case for OCR cuts, and the market is now putting greater weight on a July cut."