Forex News: NZ's 2Q business confidence survey suggests RBNZ's expectation for modest rebound in economic activity in 2Q is optimistic, says Deutsche Bank chief economist Darren Gibbs; "The weakness in the trading activity indicator confirms my view that the economy likely contracted at least a half a percent in the second quarter, which is clearly much weaker than the Reserve Bank was anticipating in the June policy statement." Adds, while near-term inflation indicators were worse, some medium-term inflation indicators improved, notably skills shortage measure, which may give RBNZ some comfort. Data reinforces expectations RBNZ will ease by September, will raise questions about whether they will wait that long.
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