A July RBNZ Rate Cut Can't Be Discounted - BNZ

Forex News: Bank of New Zealand says this morning's weak 2Q business confidence marginally increases the risk of rate cut at July 24 meeting, but thinks September still remains likely start to easing cycle. "You certainly wouldn't rule out July but the balance of risks still point to September notwithstanding the fact that this is yet another piece of information that their (RBNZ) short term growth forecasts are optimistic," says head of research Stephen Toplis; notes survey "absolutely gives green light" for rate cuts, but RBNZ will have to decide if it's prepared to move early given CPI pressures. "What it all means is that the household sector is going to get battered right through till the end of this year and business profitability will remain under pressure, and that is an ugly cocktail."