Deutsche Now Expects First RBNZ Rate Cut In July

Forex News: With weak QSBO confidence data making it more likely RBNZ will adopt more pessimistic economic view, Deutsche Bank chief economist Darren Gibbs now expects RBNZ to start cutting rates on July 24 vs previous call for September. With bank prepared to look through poor near-term inflation picture, doesn't think a bad CPI print next week would have material impact on outlook; rather, decision to ease would be "a judgement call on the economy" and whether inflation will get worse over medium term given economy is weak. Notes RBNZ in June made it clear it thinks a weaker economy will moderate medium-term inflation and this judgement is unlikely to have changed.